Rise in rates sends prices, sales tumbling

I always wonder whether "raising interest rates" is the best measure to contain a "hot" real estates market.  The news below in Hong Kong is a good read.

By South China Morning Post
Wednesday, 21 September 2011 16:46


HONG KONG: A spate of bad news on the home front, including another rise in interest rates, has sent Hong Kong home prices and deal numbers tumbling.


The latest blow to market confidence came last Friday, Sept 16 when the city's two biggest home lenders, HSBC and Bank of China (Hong Kong), raised their mortgage interest rates.

Despite price discounting in the secondary market of up to 7% by anxious sellers, just 15 flats were sold in the city's 10 biggest estates at the weekend, with zero deals recorded in five of them. The sales were down by more than half from the 33 deals done in the 10 large estates over the previous weekend and compare with an average of nearly 40 deals per weekend in the year's first half.


Just six new flats sold over the weekend of Sept 17-18, the lowest weekend total for the year and down from eight the previous weekend, regional head of property research at Samsung Securities (Asia) Lee Wee Liat said. In the first half of the year an average of 100 new flats were sold each weekend.

The cause of the latest declines was Friday's increase in rates, the fifth for the year, agents said. The higher borrowing costs come on top of uncertainty about the global economic outlook, nervous bidding at recent land auctions, falling stock prices and the release by developers of new projects at prices that are close to, and in some cases lower than, prices in the secondary market.

HSBC increased the interest rate on mortgages based on the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) from Hibor plus 1.8%-2.3%, to Hibor plus 2.3%-2.7%. Hibor is the rate banks charge for lending to other local banks.

HSBC also raised its prime-based rates from prime minus 2.7% to prime minus 2.1%-2.4%. The new rates took effect on Monday.

Bank of China (HK) raised its Hibor-based rates to Hibor plus 2.0%-2.5% from Hibor plus 1.8%-2.3%. More local banks are expected to follow the market leaders.

"The new round of mortgage rate hikes initiated by HSBC last Friday dampened secondary-market sentiment," Samsung Securities' Lee said. "Some homeowners lowered their prices, but potential buyers maintained their wait-and-see attitude."

The senior sales director at Hong Kong Property's Whampoa Garden branch, May Chan, said only one flat changed hands on the estate over the weekend, after the owner cut his asking price by 7% from HK$3.8 million (RM1.52 million) to HK$3.58 million.


"Half of the eight appointments we made on behalf of buyers were cancelled over the weekend after the higher mortgage rates were announced. Sales had already begun slowing, but the news of another increase in home loan rates turned the market sentiment from bad to worse," she said.

A sales director at Centaline Property Agency's Tuen Mun and Tin Shui Wai branches, Perry Fong Kai-ming, said home seekers had responded to the latest news by deferring their purchase decisions. Buyers were worried about more increases in lending rates and tighter credit policies, he said.

The five estates with no sales at the weekend were South Horizons, Mei Foo Sun Chuen, Laguna City, Discovery Park and Metro City.

"In some housing estates such as Park Island in Ma Wan and Sunshine City in Ma On Shan, we see transacted prices down 3% to 4% in just one week. Buyers are cautious in the face of the bad news," Ricacorp Properties head of research Patrick Chow Moon-kit said.

According to Centaline Property Agency, the affordability of a 600 square foot flat — as measured by the monthly mortgage payment as a proportion of household income — has deteriorated from 41.8% to 43.8%, based on a Hibor loan of 60% over 20 years.

Nicholas Brooke, chairman of the Professional Property Services Group, said a combination of factors had eroded buyer confidence.

"It is not the increase in interest rates as such that is spooking the market but rather the combination of government intervention, global economic uncertainty and a general concern about the future as well as a clear upward trend in interest rates driven primarily by the switch from the Hong Kong dollar to the yuan that is causing the market to tread water."

The economy was clearly slowing and developers were likely to release flats on a controlled "drip-feed basis", he added.

Cheung Kong (Holdings) has postponed the launch of La Splendeur in Tseung Kwan O, a joint venture with the MTR Corp, to this week to allow more mainlanders to visit its show suites over the weekend. — SCMP


http://www.theedgeproperty.com/global-market-watch/8322-rise-in-rates-sends-prices-sales-tumbling.html