Iskandar -- don't kill the golden goose

THE EDGE WEEKLY ISSUE#992

THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 9 – DECEMBER 15, 2013

THE EDGE SAYS:

There is a saying that one should not kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.  Iskandar Malaysia (IM) has been the golden goose for the past two to three years.

IM has brought huge investments into Johor.  According to data from the Iskandar Regional Development Authority, some RM128 billion has been committed, of which 44% has been realised.

As investments poured into its infrastructure, people began to realise its potential as much cheaper and attractive alternative to Singapore across the Straits of Johor.  With its well-planned theme parks and educational, residential, commercial and industrial hubs, IM was beginning to look like a good place for Malaysians, Singaporeans and foreigners to live, learn, work and play.

And due to both foreign and local buying, property prices have doubled over the past two years.  Land deals of all shapes and sizes have been done and new launches snapped up.

However, the two most recent launches tell a very different tale.

Lacklustre response to recent launches

Last weekend (Nov 30 / Dec 1), UEM Sunrise Bhd had a soft launch of Almas Suites, a SoHo (Small office Home office) development in Puteri Harbour, comprising 546 units.  It is the first of four blocks that includes apartments, offices and retail outlets.

We understand that the net average selling price was around RM800 psf, although it was listed as RM895 psf.  After one week, sales bookings stand at just 15%.

In contrast, a year ago when UEM Sunrise launched Teega, a condominium project also in Puteri Harbour, it was almost sold out.  The first two towers were priced at RM750 psf and Tower 3 at a higher RM825 psf.

Completed sales currently stand at 93% with the balance booked but pending legal completions.  In fact, then Teega was launched, there was a long queue, with more than 70% of the units booked in the first weekend alone.

Another project of note is Medini Signature at Medini North by WCT Holdings Bhd.  Tower 1 was launched in July 2013 at an average price of RM630 psf and is 80% sold.  In contract, Tower 2, launched a month later in August, is only 20% sold.  This is partly due to an increase in the average price to RM680 psf and partly to more competition and the new “cooling measures” imposed since October 2013.

What happened and why?

A number of cooling measures were imposed in Budget 2014.  the measures, which will be effective from Jan 1, 2014, include raising the Real Property Gain Tax (RPGT) to a flat 30% for the first five years and 5% thereafter for foreign property investors.

Locals are also subject to a higher RPGT of 30% for the first three years, 20% in the fourth year, and 15% in the fifth year.  After the fifth year, there is no RPGT for local individual buyers but properties bought by local companies will be taxed 5%.  A mortgage-financing scheme, the Developer interest-bearing scheme (DIBS), was banned.

More crucially, the minimum foreign purchase restrictions was raised from RM500,000 to RM1 million.  

The above measures would have been more than sufficient to cool down the property market in Johor and elsewhere in Malaysia.

But in Johor, when it rains, it pours.  More negative news came in quick succession.

First was the introduction of a stamp duty of 2%, specifically for Johor, on foreign buyers.  Next was the changing of the official weekend to Friday and Saturday without any prior notice or consultation with the public, business community or other stakeholders.

The industry was further dumbfounded by talk that a 4,000-acre land reclamation project would be awarded to the Hong Kong-listed but China-based Country Garden Group.

And on Dec 3, Guangzhou R&F Properties, a Hong Kong-listed company, announced a mind-blowing RM4.5 billion land acquisition deal with the Sultan of Johor. (http://realestatesmalaysia.blogspot.com/2013/12/land-sale-by-johor-sultan-sets-record.html)

This was for 116 acres of land in Johor Baru with an estimated saleable floor area of 3.5 million sq m.  we are uncertain about the exact location of this parcel, which is apparently in the JB city centre.

To put it into perspective, this one development alone proposed by Guangzhou R&F is almost equivalent to the entire Kuala Lumpur city centre residential zoning floor area of 3.8 million sq m by year 2020.

Is there more land reclamation to come?  Will existing vacant land be approved for even higher density developments to raise values?  We understand that more reclamation works may be undertaken in Tebrau and even the mangrove areas of Ramsar.

Such a ridiculous supply of land coming on stream for future development – not only from existing ample undeveloped land, but also newly “created” ones – will sap even the most optimistic of spirits.

What will happen to the unsold units?

From Jan 1, 2014, foreigners will no longer be allowed to buy any property below RM1 million, up from RM500, 000 previously.

Until now, foreign buyers have formed a significant number of those who take up units priced above RM500,000.  As a result, many of the recently launched projects or those planned to be launched have a large proportion of units priced just above RM500,000 mark.

We understand Country Garden’s project in Danga Bay has sold less than 6,000 units out of a total of 9,400, mostly priced in this region.  As a result, the developer is in a rush to sell as many of the remaining units as possible before Jan 1, 2014.

While there is big rush to sell, where is the demand going to come from?  Who will buy such units knowing full well that the future market will be limited to locals only.

Many other developers are in a similar bind as can be seen from the table above.

Obviously, one can argue that with the new restrictions, developers will soon plan new products and developments that are larger and cost above RM1 million to cater for the Singapore and foreign market.

However, one has to question if this is viable.  By just building larger and more expensive units, will one be able to bring back the foreign buyer?

For Singaporeans looking for small weekend, holiday or retirement home in IM or a property investment, a RM500,000 home translates into less than S$200,000, which is still affordable.  Double up that amount and it accounts for a chunk of one’s savings, which an investor would prefer not to risk investing in a different country with different – and often changing – rules.

Another new risk to IM is the marketing strategies of some developers.  At least one developer is selling some of its units either as a “buy 1 free 1” complimentary package or in facilitating fund transfers.

When a buyer is given an apartment in IM as a free gift for another he or she buys overseas, the brand value and the perceived value of IM is severely damaged.  There will also be flood of supply in the market from these foreign buyers as they unload their perceived “free” units in IM.

This trend, unfortunately, will likely accelerate, given the recent land purchases by foreign developers associated with these types of schemes. 

IM is like a child in the candy store.  He is suddenly allowed into a room full of sweets and cakes.  He grabs and eats everything in sight  and is now experiencing indigestion and heart-burn.  If he is not stopped, he will soon throw up.

But the mess created goes beyond just this child.  Everyone else in the room will end up with the same stench and have to contribute to the cleaning bill. 

The various authorities and agencies involved, from the federal level to the state, must act fast to rein in the excesses, especially in the release of land and approval of new projects.  They should pop over to Singapore to learn how this can be done.

The IM story is still fundamentally sound and economically justifiable.  What is desperately needed is for discipline to be imposed NOW if we do not want it to end up like the story of the golden goose that got slayed.